What drives olive oil prices (and how buyers who don’t suffer them purchase)
Few agricultural products move like olive oil: campaigns at rock-bottom prices and campaigns at all-time highs, sometimes only a year apart.
For the industrial buyer, understanding what sits behind those swings is the difference between suffering the market and managing it.
Spain sets the world’s tone
Spain produces around half of the planet’s olive oil, concentrated in Andalusia. What happens in the Spanish olive groves in September and October is felt in prices in Hamburg, Chicago or Tokyo. No other origin can compensate for a short Spanish crop.
The four engines of the price
First, the harvest: the olive tree is alternate-bearing — good and bad years take turns — and the weather during flowering and over the summer decides the size of the crop. Second, the carry-over: the stock left in tanks when the new campaign starts; a short carry-over means nerves and rising prices. Third, world demand, which keeps growing year after year. And fourth, the rest of the Mediterranean: when Greece, Italy or Tunisia fail at the same time, there is no safety net.
Why some campaigns cost twice as much as others
The recent droughts proved it: two short harvests in a row and the price at origin more than doubled. Then one good harvest brought it back down. Olive oil is a supply-driven market — demand barely gives way even when prices rise, so all the adjustment happens through price.
How the buyers who don’t suffer actually buy
They programme campaign volume instead of buying spot every time they run low. They fix prices in tranches — never everything on one day. They keep flexibility in the specification where the use allows it: sometimes virgin oil or a refined-plus-virgin blend meets the requirement that was being covered with extra virgin out of habit. And they work with a producer at origin with its own storage, able to sustain deliveries all year round.
Our role
We are at origin, with our own storage and a campaign-wide view. Tell us your annual consumption and we propose a programme, a delivery calendar and the reasonable buying windows of each campaign — with samples and certificate of analysis, as always.
Frequently asked questions
When is the best moment to buy olive oil?
There is no magic date. Once the size of the harvest is known — November and December — the market gives its verdict. The practical answer is to buy in tranches across the campaign rather than trying to guess the bottom.
Can I fix a price for a whole year?
By tranches and volumes, yes. A campaign programme locks your volume and spreads the price risk.
If the campaign is short, will I be left without oil?
With a closed programme your volume is reserved. It is the spot buyer who is left out when supply tightens.
Sourcing bulk oils?
Tell us the oil, volume and destination — our export team replies with availability and pricing.
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